Announcements

Professor Nyhan on Bright Line Watch polling

Professor Brendan Nyhan, a member of the Steering Committee of the Program in Quantitative Social Science (QSS) and the James O. Freedman Presidential Professor of Government at Dartmouth College, was recently mentioned in a New York Times article titled, "America Is Playing With Fire."  The article examines Donald Trump's second-term agenda, focusing on his plan to politicize federal agencies, prioritize prosecuting domestic enemies, and weaken democratic norms through initiatives like Schedule F. It highlights his rhetoric against NATO commitments, praise for authoritarian leaders, and divisive policies appealing to the MAGA base, raising concerns about potential threats to democracy and civil liberties.

Professor Nyhan is one of the founders of Bright Line Watch, a project that regularly polls political scientists and the larger public to gauge "potential danger to American democratic norms and institutions."  From September 25 to October 8, Bright Line Watch surveyed 549 political science experts in the US and 2,750 Americans. Among the findings of its recent poll are that political scientists rated the Supreme Court's July 1 ruling in Trump v. United States, which established broad presidential immunity from criminal prosecution, as the most significant threat to democracy among the events listed. "In total," Bright Line Watch reported, "86 percent of experts rated [the Trump v. United States decision] as a threat to democracy, including 75 percent who viewed it as either a serious or extraordinary threat."

In Winter 2025, Professor Nyhan will be teaching GOVT 10: Quantitative Political Analysis and GOVT 35: The Presidency.

Professor Yusaku Horiuchi joins West House as Faculty Fellow

Yusaku Horiuchi, Professor of Government and a member of the Steering Committee for the Program in Quantitative Social Science, joined Dartmouth's house communities this fall as part of the second cohort of faculty fellows.

Professor Horiuchi will serve as a faculty fellow for West House, one of Dartmouth's six house communities. Reflecting on his new role, he writes, "Becoming a house fellow is especially meaningful to me because my interactions with students are an essential part of my life at Dartmouth. These interactions have broadened my perspective and made me more open-minded. I also hope my unique experiences—teaching in three different countries, all outside of my home country and in a non-native language—will be helpful to students as they navigate their own academic and personal journeys. I look forward to more opportunities to connect with and learn from students."

Read the full article on faculty fellows here: Meet the New Cohort of House Faculty Fellows.

QSS is hiring!

The Program in Quantitative Social Science (QSS) at Dartmouth College seeks a teacher-scholar for a tenured appointment as Associate Professor, to be appointed as early as July 1, 2025. In exceptional cases, appointment as Professor may be considered. QSS is an interdisciplinary program that integrates modern statistical, computational, and mathematical tools with social science. With an emphasis on tackling social science questions, relevant fields for this search include economics, geography, political science, social psychology, sociology, applied mathematics, statistics, demography, and related disciplines.

Details on the position and a link to apply are available at Interfolio at https://apply.interfolio.com/157039. A short description of the position is as follows.

The Program in Quantitative Social Science (QSS) at Dartmouth College seeks a teacher-scholar for a tenured appointment as Associate Professor, to be appointed as early as July 1, 2025. In exceptional cases, appointment as Professor may be considered. QSS is an interdisciplinary program that integrates modern statistical, computational, and mathematical tools with social science. With an emphasis on tackling social science questions, relevant fields for this search include applied mathematics, statistics, demography, economics, geography, political science, sociology, and related disciplines. We are particularly interested in applicants who have an interest in contributing to program leadership and the broader development of QSS on campus. Qualified candidates should have a Ph.D. in a relevant discipline. For a complete position description, visit Interfolio. Review of applications will begin on November 15, 2024, and continue until the position is filled. For questions regarding this position, please contact: Andrew Coombs (Andrew.G.Coombs@dartmouth.edu).

Election Administration Harms and Ballot Design

Professor Michael Herron, the Remsen 1943 Professor of Quantitative Social Science and Chair of the Program in Quantitative Social Science, is a co-author of a recently published article, "Election administration harms and ballot design: A study of Florida's 2018 United States Senate race," in American Journal of Political Science. This article studies a ballot format used in Broward County, Florida, in 2018 and shows how the ballot induced approximately 25,000 Florida voters to accidentally undervote (i.e., not vote in) Florida's 2018 United States Senate race.

This fall, Professor Herron is teaching QSS 30.01 Sports Analytics and QSS 81 Major Thesis Research. 

The abstract of the article is as follows:

We introduce a typology of election administration harms and apply it to empirically study the consequences of ballot design. Our typology distinguishes between individual, electoral, and systemic harms. Together, it clarifies why ballot design can be a particular vulnerability in election administration. Using both ballot-level and precinct-level data, we revisit Florida's 2018 United States Senate race, in which Broward County's ballot design flouted federal guidelines and, according to critics, was pivotal to the outcome. We estimate that Broward's ballot design induced roughly 25,000 voters to undervote in a race determined by about 10,000 votes and that these excess undervotes were concentrated among low-information voters. Broward's ballot did not, however, affect the outcome of the election. Nonetheless, flawed ballot designs are still concerning in an age of voter distrust. Given the risk that flawed ballots can cause systemic harm, we offer a roadmap for procedural reforms to improve ballot design.

QSS Pizza Night

The Program in Quantitative Social Science would like to invite all of its majors and minors to a pizza night. Traditionally, we've hosted an end-of-year brunch for graduating students, but this year we're excited to branch out and offer events every quarter for all QSS majors and minors.

Here's our plan for the school year:

Fall Term: Pizza night in the Hinman Forum

Winter Term: S'mores on the Green (date TBD but prepare to be cold)

Spring Term: To be determined (and let us know if you have any thoughts on this)

For the fall term, please join us for pizza on Tuesday, October 15, from 6:30-7:15 PM in the Rockefeller Hinman Forum. To help us with planning, please fill out this Google Form to let us know if you'll be attending: https://forms.gle/4bNhBbjAdLFPTabNA.